After running 1000s of simulations on the NBA season, our DimersBOT predictive analytics model has found the best NBA championship futures bet to make this season, and it may surprise you. Hint: it’s not the conference favorites, the Boston Celtics or Denver Nuggets.
Depending on when you read this, we are either in the middle of the NBA’s All-Star Break or just returning from it, so that gives us the perfect opportunity to analyze the current state of the NBA Futures market.
On Dimers.com, you’ll find a dedicated section to NBA Futures, specifically for the Championship and Conference Winner markets. While our model doesn’t identify “best bets” in our futures hub the same way it does in our Best NBA Bets and Best NBA Player Props pages, we can still see the projected probability for each team to win their respective conference and the NBA Finals. You’ll also see the sportsbook that has the best odds available, so you know where you should actually place the bet if you’re doing so.
In addition to our NBA resources, we have pages dedicated to the best NBA promos and detailed reviews of every sportsbook available in your state. In our Best Sportsbooks section, you’ll find the latest sign-up offers, often worth hundreds of dollars in bonus bets, just like this one from Fanatics below!
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves Will Win the NBA Finals
According to our predictive analytics model, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the best value on the board to win the NBA Finals and the Western Conference, and it’s not even close. After simulating the season 1000s of times and updating every day, DimersBOT calculates a big mistake by the books in their price on Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and the rest of the T-Wolves.
Minnesota sit atop the Western Conference at 39-16 with a 1.5-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 1 seed. They entered the All-Star Break on a four-game win streak and winning seven of their last ten. Having the No.1 seed would be huge for them in the postseason, as they have lost just five times on their home court this season.
The Boston Celtics are the massive favorites, sitting at +260 on FanDuel Sportsbook, with a 40.8% probability to win it all from our model. This is a value play in and of itself, and one we’ve previously highlighted when the odds were even better. The +260 odds imply just a 27.8% probability, a 13% edge.
However, when we’re looking at the difference in odds, that’s just between +260 and +145. Value, yes, but not as good as we could get. The Minnesota Timberwolves on the other hand, are currently +2500 to win the NBA Finals on BetMGM Sportsbook. Those odds imply just a 3.9% probability, while our model gives them an 11.8% probability. That’s a smaller edge in percentage at 7.9% compared to the Celtics’ 13%, but that’s the difference between +2500 and just +750.
Using a $100 bet as an example, that means you’re getting an extra $115 ($260 – $145) of profit on the Celtics based on what we say the odds *should* be, which is very good, but an extra $1,750 in profit on the book’s odds for the Timberwolves, which is outstanding.
| Bet | Books’ Odds | Our Fair Odds | +/-Profit Value ($100 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics to Win Finals | +260 | +145 | $115 |
| Timberwolves to Win Finals | +2500 | +750 | $1,750 |
| Timberwolves to Win Western Conference | +900 | +200 | $700 |
| Nuggets to Win Western Conference | +255 | +400 | -$155 |
This applies to Minnesota’s odds to win the Western Conference, too. They’re +900 in that market, but they’re actually our model’s favorite to win the West at 32.2%, which means they shouldn’t be any longer than about +200. For comparison, the Nuggets are the books’ favorite at +255, but get just a 20.1% probability (worth +400).
Even if you bet just $5 on Minnesota, you’re seeing incredible value with a potential return of $125 on their championship odds, and they’re a must-bet at this price because with less than 30 games left to play, these odds could shorten drastically. Fortunately for you, we’ve got a great betting strategy to make use of!
Get a 100% Bet Match by Picking Minnesota to Win the Title
Now for the fun part and how to make the most out of betting on the Timberwolves to win either the Western Conference or the NBA Finals. Dimers has already touched on this, but new users who sign up at Fanatics Sportsbook can get a 100% bet match for ten straight days, up to a $1,000 total value.
That means if you bet on the Timberwolves to win the NBA Finals at Fanatics Sportsbook, you’ll get the value of your bet matched in bonuses. So, a $100 bet on Minnesota to be crowned champions not only returns you $2600 if they win the Finals, but also instantly gives you a $100 bet match which you can use on anything.
And that’s not all, as because it’s a 10-day offer, you can then bet on Minnesota to win the Western Conference the next day and get *another* 100% bet match. You don’t want to overly invest in one market, but you can feasibly place multiple NBA futures on a few different teams and get an equal value in bonus bets for each future you make. In turn, you could potentially use those bonuses to win back the money you’ve invested on the Timberwolves, meaning your futures bets are house money as you’ve already covered your investment.
As well as being your best source for NBA predictions, Dimers also has the latest NBA news, NBA predictions for every game, weekly NBA best bets, and NBA props and NBA trends.
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